Uneducated guesses

First off, let me state that I have tried to objectively look at the Boise State QB race from the beginning. Devotees of the blog may recall that prior to Spring ball, I had Coughlin as my frontrunner. It is clear at this point that MC is not going to be the man. Let me also state that I have been critical of the local media outlets when they have gone too far in campaigning for one QB over the other. I have no qualms saying that I have jumped on the Kellen Moore bandwagon and I think he obviously has a bright future at Boise State. So make no mistake, when I make my following prediction: I am not endorsing one QB over another (not that it matters to the coaching staff) and I think that we are gold if the coaches go either way. That said...after watching yesterday's scrimmage (and not watching any of the Fall practices)—I predict that senior Bush Hamdan is going to be the starter for 2008.

Hamdan, though he had a rougher outing in the first Fall scrimmage...has, from all accounts had a good camp. He was really neck and neck with Moore after Spring ball (an amazing testament to just how good the frosh is) and the 5th year senior has had a solid summer. Last night, though Moore again looked crisp, Hamdan looked more like a starter to me. Moore had a beautiful 50-yard TD pass to Jeremy Childs...but Hamdan had an amazing TD strike to Austin Pettis that he threw off of his back foot as the pocket had nearly collapsed on him. Hamdan also had a very nice touchdown pass to Vinny Perretta and several scrambling tosses that found their mark. Hamdan finished the night 9 of 14 for 214 yards with 3 TDs and one INT (thankfully to new starter Brandyn Thompson). Kellen Moore was 13 of 21 for 149 yards, one TD and one INT. These stats certainly don't indicate a huge chasm between the senior and the frosh and Moore did have the better first scrimmage...but like I said...Hamdan just looked more like the starter yesterday. I will pull a Hal Mumme and have my "gut feeling" moment. Hamdan is gonna be the starter...Moore will see some time this year...Moore will be unstoppable and incredibly good as a sophomore. For those of you that would like to serve up piping hot crow for me if I am wrong, I believe on a PC it's the alt-Print Screen command

Other observations from the 2nd Fall scrimmage

Vinny Perretta is going to tear it up this year. He had two long TD receptions last night and has looked very good this Summer. I think we would've done better last season with VP healthy.

Our RBs look great. I'm used to the sight of Ian Johnson in street clothes at scrimmages, so I'm not too rattled by the fact he didn't play. Doug Martin, Jeremy Avery and DJ Harper look great. They run hard and don't go down without a fight. Even freshman Matt Kaiserman and walk-on Carlo Audagnotti looked good on the blue.

Jarvis Hodge looks like Kimbo Slice. Hodge didn't play yesterday, but he is sporting a thick beard and if you squint...he looks a bit like the wannabe brawler.

Chandler Koch will be good. Koch is tall and has soft hands...maybe he uses Palmolive?

Our Freshman O-lineman are huge. Faraji Wright, Joe Kellogg, Tom Swanson and others are gonna be big players for us in the future...literally.

Tommy Smith and George Iloka will be all-WAC someday soon. alt-Printscreen

Boise State has international appeal. I had 3 Germans speaking ze Deutsch next to me at last night's scrimmage.

Offense ruled the night BUT Kyle Wilson, Jeron Johnson, Billy Winn and others were not suited up.

Brandyn Thompson will fill in nicely for our dearly departed Orlando Scandrick.

This will be a fun year. How's that for another bold prediction?

Scrimmage Links

Murphy less sure of QB race outcome.

Dustin Lapray weighs in on the action. Grab a thesaurus.

IPT's scrimmage photo gallery.

Bronco Nation podcast—now with 100% more Guerrero!

The Bronco bloggin' boyz were back last night with special guest Alex Guerrero. Alex gives some nice insight into the program, his new gig with KWEI and puts the world on notice for the London 2012 Summer Olympics. Also, my 1-year old attempts to get in on the podcast as well...you'll have to wait 'lil guy.

 The Bronco Nation Podcast - The 100 Yard Dash Fantasy [32:15m]: Hide Player | Play in Popup | Download

Your guess=as good as mine

Photo by Joe Jaszewski

Ok...so I took the wife and kid down to Bronco Stadium for the ridiculously early scrimmage today. They know that most people are working at 3 PM on a Monday, right? Anyhoo...I showed up a bit late—around 4 and tried to see what I could see. The "big" play (Kellen Moore to Vinny Perretta for a 51 yard TD) had already happened, but thankfully Buck from Statueleft got me up to speed. Here's what I thought I saw:

Kellen Moore looks very poised and makes decisions very quickly (and usually wisely). He didn't have a "wow" type of day, but still led all QBs in yardage with 137 yards and a score. Moore did not play error free ball, but he did not turn the ball over (other than a ball that was stripped by a blitzing Derrell Acrey). Moore's receivers had a few drops, he threw a few a bit wide, but also wisely threw them away when nothing was opening up. Moore was only 9 of 22 on the day...but didn't kill drives and still got over the 100 yard mark. Moore may have just pulled slightly ahead with today's performance.

Bush Hamdan, though dead even throughout the Spring and Summer with Moore—may have ceded a bit of an edge today to Moore. Hamdan had no turnovers to speak of, but often threw into tight coverage and was lucky not to be picked off. Hamdan looked fairly agile in the pocket, but did not tuck and run when it may have been beneficial. The defense put pretty good pressure on him, but Bush wasn't making terribly quick reads. He finished the day 5 of 15 for 48 yards and no scores. Some remarked that the running game seemed to look better with Hamdan at the helm, but this may be chalked up to a) sheer coincidence or b) the fact that the RBs are more accustomed to a right-handed exchange. Hamdan didn't kill the offense, but he didn't spark them much either. It is the first scrimmage, so I won't read too much in. Hamdan, I think is #2 for now.

Nick Lomax had the best passer rating of the outing. He was 7 of 9 and completed 77% of his throws. It must be stated, however, that Lomax's stats were accumulated against mainly 2nd or 3rd teamers and were high percentage, short passes that only netted him 68 yards through the air. Lomax always seems to get up for the scrimmages and doesn't make many boneheaded mistakes...but he is clearly a step behind Moore and Hamdan and has not really impressed a lot in actual game situations. Lomax is hangin' in there, but I don't think he'll push Moore or Hamdan for much PT.

Michael Coughlin did not see much action on Monday. He was a respectable 5 of 8 for 35 yards and clearly possesses the best legs of the group. He also has a rocket arm, but routinely seems to overthrow receivers and rushes his passes. Coughlin saw some action last year in games and performed decently...but he and Lomax, "the tall ones" don't seem to have grasped the offense as well as the redshirt and the 5th year. I still have hope that Coughlin will make a charge and we'll see him some this year, but a starting gig looks like a longshot.

The defense played well and Derrell Acrey and Jeron Johnson stood out. Acrey adds a larger, more physical presence at midfield and Johnson just seems to be everywhere. Jeron hits like a Mack truck and leveled the much larger Julian Hawkins with a hit that echoed off the bleachers. Hunter White also caught my eye as he really flies around out there. The defensive line got good pushes into the backfield which hopefully is because of a combination of skill and the fact that the O-line is missing several cogs.

Receiving was hard to gauge. Very excited to read the stat line that Chandler Koch led all receivers with 61 yards—equally so about frosh Chris Potter snagging 5 tosses. Our future looks bright at receiver...and so does the present. Perretta, obviously snagged a long TD pass that was 100% effort. Nice to see Vinny back at full strength. Also nice to have Jeremy Childs back...he didn't light it up...but always seems to be open. Our receivers and running backs shouldn't be an issue this year. They're gold.

To sum it up. No QB really distanced himself too much. Hamdan or Moore is anyone's guess. Obviously there are pros and cons to either choice, but I don't get the impression that either would do poorly if given the reins. We'll just have to wait until Saturday's scrimmage to see if another can pull away. Until then...happy prognosticating.

All together now.

The Broncos celebrated togetherness this morning as the newcomers and veterans all converged on the Blue Turf (in full pads, no less) for the first time this fall. The true freshman who will contribute this year will start to make themselves known and the wiley veterans will show the youngsters a thing or two as well. All reports so are good. Titus the Young caught a 50-yard TD strike from wunderkind Kellen Moore and then Vinny Perretta brought in one of his own from Bush Hamdan. The two top-dogs in the QB derby certainly are both playing well...making it difficult to guess as to where the depth chart stands. Monday will be the first scrimmage and fans and analysts should be able to see who controls the offense better. It's fair to say that Moore and Hamdan have stepped it up.

Also stepping it up is the Bronco Defense. Coming of an inconsistent 2007 and losing stalwarts Orlando Scandrick and Marty Tadman...all indicators are that the defense has the fire back in their bellies. They've been creating turnovers at an alarming rate and Ryan Winterswyk and Mike T. Williams are setting themselves up to be the best Defensive End-tandem in the conference...both have been named Coach Pete's Player of the Day so far. The linebacking corps, (now with more Acrey!) have been pickin' off passes and pickin' fights. All good signs.

How the offensive line will come together still remains to be seen. Several youngsters should get in the mix soon and we'll see very soon if any of the frosh hosses will get thrown into the fire.

Getting close now...young and old have converged and it's about to get interesting.

Fresh Linkage:

OBNUG's Cliff's Camp Notes

Statueleft does some covert ops on Day 2 of camp

Kellen Moore speaks, people listen.

Dustin Lapray paints a vivid scene of fall camp. Get Pulitzer on the phone!

The long summer awaits

The annual Blue & Orange game wrapped up last night with the offense beating the defense 25-9. You may think that the scoring system favored the offense, and you would be right. The defense, by all accounts played well and showed that they are a cohesive unit that will go back to Boise State's bread and butter of stopping the run. The defense gave up only one late TD—a 3-yard run by Doug Martin.

QB race will be a photo-finish
The QB race, as everyone expected was NOT resolved last night, but it is pretty fair to say that the 4-man derby has become a two-man race between redshirt freshman Kellen Moore and senior Bush Hamdan. Once again, Moore led all QBs at the scrimmage going 11-of-13 for 99 yards and no turnovers. If you are keeping track at home...Moore had the best stats at 2 of the 3 Spring scrimmages and went 26-of-39 with 265 yards and no turnovers for Spring. The other dog in the hunt, Bush Hamdan, was 7-of-10 for 65 yards in the scrimmage and was 19-of-31 with 239 yards and no turnovers for the Spring.

Now, we are definitely in for a long summer and any one of these QBs can make strides and insert himself back into the race, but for now, between Moore and Hamdan...I believe that we are looking at a similar scenario that we faced in 2004 when Jared Zabransky and Michael Sanford were both vying for the spot. Unless the senior (Hamdan) really distances himself from Moore and the other QBs, I think the coaches will go with "the future" like they did in '04. Obviously, at this point, Moore has the better numbers and has been more consistent...but summer workouts and fall camp could change that. Hamdan is a touch more mobile than Moore and has a bit stronger arm, but Moore is very quick at scanning the field and finding the open man and appears to sense pressure when it is coming and moves well in the pocket.

Barring a total meltdown by Moore over the next few months I would put the quarterback odds at this point at:
Moore-55%
Hamdan-35%
Coughlin-10%*
Lomax-0%

*I do believe that regardless of who is named the starter between Hamdan and Moore, we will still see Mike Coughlin in certain game situations.

Defense makes good strides
While injury-prone, the defense still made very positive strides this Spring as the linebacker corps looks to be very deep and very talented. We will probably see any or all of the eligible LBs in games this season. Sophomore Derrell Acrey has impressed coaches this Spring and looks poised to make a big impact this fall. Kyle Gingg, Tim Brady, Dallas Dobbs and Aaron Tevis also have shown coaches what they wanted to see—playing more physical and knowing their assignments.

The secondary has a few question marks with the departure of Orlando Scandrick and Marty Tadman, and the no one really knows who will replace Scandrick across the field from Kyle Wilson this year. The safety position, however, looks to be in good shape as big-hitter Jeron Johnson returns and Jason Robinson has excelled in the off-season. True frosh George Iloka will likely burn his redshirt this year as he's been a force in the secondary all spring.

Running backs a'plenty
The running back situtation, is barely worth mentioning as there is possibly more depth and talent in the backfield than the Broncos have ever had. With a young, untested O-line, the Bronco offense will look to game-changers Ian Johnson, Jeremy Avery, Doug Martin and DJ Harper to blow the games wide-open. While Ian Johnson is the incumbent starter, Martin and Harper have had big Springs while Avery nurses an injury. Harper has been extremely hard for the defense to take down and Doug Martin looks to be a very solid goal-line back.

Outlook
Spring ball should be enough to assuage the most pessimistic Bronco's fears as the team looks to be filling the voids nicely. Thomas Byrd looks like he will be the starting center and the rest of the O-line will solidify itself in the Fall and hopefully add a little bulk over the summer. The kicking game, with Kyle Brotzman back, should be just fine. The bottom line is this: if the Broncos can regain the chip on their shoulder that they had in '06...the schedule favors another WAC title and good bowl game. The team chemistry will dictate what this 2008-09 Bronco squad can achieve.

OBNUG's Blue & Orange take
Nice IPT slideshow of the B&O
OrangeDeath provides proof of new unis
Statueleft will have scrimmage pics and video galore
Idaho Statesman refutes Phil Dailey's claims that a starter has been crowned.

Really?!

To say that Boise State Offensive Coordinator, Bryan Harsin keeps things close to the vest would be a slight understatement. To say that Harsin is a liar would be a slight overstatement. To say that Harsin is being extremely vague and diplomatic with his info would have squarely hit the nail on the head. Harsin yesterday insisted that no quarterback has really established himself as the frontrunner in the highly publicized QB race yet (roll eyes). He did, however, once again fail to include junior Nick Lomax's name among the QBs that he praised for their Spring progress. Not generally one to read too far into things...I am confident that Lomax's repeated exclusion from Harsin's interviews is a good indicator that at this point Lomax is sitting in the #4 QB spot. I also believe that by the end of spring ball on April 11th, we will have a clear favorite.

Luckily for us speculative fans, Harsin gave us a small inkling of how we might figure out the current pecking order:

He plans to give all of them time with the first-team offense this week in practice and reward the guys who play the best with more playing time in Friday’s scrimmage at Mountain View High in Meridian (3:30 p.m.).

Hear that? Take out your stopwatches to Mountain View High on Friday afternoon and determine who is getting the most time in the 2nd scrimmage...already knowing that Lomax is in 4th place (according to my calculations), we should accurately be able to determine the remaining top 3. After the first scrimmage, it looks to be 1. Kellen Moore 2. Bush Hamdan 3. Michael Coughlin and 4. (sorry) Nick Lomax.

One more impressive scrimmage out of Moore and he will be dubbed "the People's Starter"

Not-so-informative Statesman Article (step it up, Cripe)

Brains > brawn.

If you follow internet chatter...especially of the Bronco variety, you've no doubt heard of the miraculous spring scrimmage of Kellen Moore. No, Moore didn't turn water into Gatorade or heal a leper (although could've performed the Heimlich maneuver on a few other Bronco QBs who 'choked') and hey, it was only the FIRST scrimmage of the spring, but many Bronco fans are calling Moore's 10-14 2 TD day a miracle. The miracle lies in the fact that Moore, who is a redshirt freshman, looked to have a better grasp of the Bronco playbook than a sophomore, junior and 5th-year senior.

Moore, a record-setting high school quarterback out of Prosser, Washington is only 6'1" and 180 lbs, but he's a coaches son and voraciously studies film...has since his high school days and probably before that LINK.

Moore has already drawn comparisons to Ryan Dinwiddie ('cept he's a lefty) and I see a little Colt Brennan in him with his quick defensive reads and nickel and dime'n opponents before going deep. The bottom line is this: Kellen Moore has as good a chance (if not better )at the starting job as anyone on the roster and Bronco fans are positively giddy at the prospect of a 4 year starter with all the offensive talent we'll retain.

I know a week or so ago I was giving the inside track to Michael Coughlin, but I sincerely think that with Moore's work ethic and knowledge of the game, coaches may see a small enough "freshman downside" in him that they may just give him the reins.

Granted, Moore needs to continue to impress through Spring ball and into Summer, but with 5 solid running-backs and a slew of fast and talented wide receivers...I think that Moore could reasonably get the starting nod without expectations of "carrying the offense" and in ensuing sophomore, junior and senior campaigns be a true B.M.O.C.

Moore may not have the height of Lomax or Coughlin or the speed and arm-strength of Hamdan, but he has football smarts and a tireless work-ethic and that, I think, may be exactly what Boise State needs again. And do you really think OUR freshman could do any worse than Nathan Enderle?

WOW.

If you were lucky enough to brave the raging Boise winds and catch the first spring scrimmage this afternoon...you were treated to a blistering display of offensive and defensive fireworks, and some of the best 15-yard punts you've ever seen.

All jokes aside, the first spring scrimmage is in the books and it looked like...well...the first spring scrimmage. A lot of guys sitting out, among them: Jarrell Root, Billy Winn, Jeremy Avery, Mike T. Williams, Kyle Wilson etc.

A lot of bad snaps, dropped passes and general miscues...but we expect that in the first spring scrimmage. Bush Hamdan and Kellen Moore seem like VERY early frontrunners for the QB job. I liked Moore's decisions and mobility and Bush made some nice throws and improvised well. Saw the first glimpse of a Ian Johnson/Doug Martin kick-return tandem and I liked what I saw...they will house a few this season.

Didn't get to see as much of Doug Martin's angry running as I would've liked, but all the backs looked capable and even Jarvis Hodge impressed on one long run.

Absolutely stacked at RB: Ian Johnson rushed four times for 70 yards, Jarvis Hodge three times for 57 yards, Doug Martin 10 times for 59 yards and sophomore D.J. Harper nine times for 40 yards. Yikes. Nice job O-line or "get well soon" D-line.

A pretty good crowd on-hand for a windy day with the NCAA tourney going on. A lot of excitement about the new-look Broncos.

I have decided to drop the scrimmage vids as I don't want to run afoul of the practice gestapo. I don't think my grainy vids are going to step on anyones toe with "actual" media credentials...but I also don't want to risk "ruining" it for anyone who consider practice video and reports to be the only real thing to get excited about until August 30th. Hence, here is a link to some "real" scrimmage video minus the pithy comments. Enjoy.

A good recap from the Statesman: Moore shines.

You think you're better than me?!

Today is a big day for Bronco Nation Boise is positively buzzing as for the first time in 14 years, the Bronco basketball team will not be able to attend the spring football scrimmage. Poor saps.

If you consider yourself a rabid Bronco fan...you will excitedly rush to Bronco Stadium at 3:30 today to watch a glorified practice. You better believe I will be there as I want to see the development of redshirts Kellen Moore, angry Doug Martin and to check out Jarrell Root's kneebrace. We also will have an opportunity to try to figure out which streetclothes-clad kids roaming the sidelines may be potential recruits. It will also mark the first opportunity I will have to take my 8-month old son down on the blue turf that he's been itching to touch ever since he left the womb.

Rumor has it that 8th-year senior Bush Hamdan will be getting the first reps with the first-team offense...but this may be more of a gesture towards the most-senior QB than a nod to who will be inheriting the offense this fall. Coach Bryan Harsin conspicuously left out Nick Lomax's name when praising the development of the QBs this spring; from the Statesman:

Harsin said he has been impressed with the springs of Coughlin and Moore, who are still learning the offense.

“Those guys have come in there and done a nice job of being prepared and playing well,” Harsin said. “ … They’ve accelerated their learning just by their preparation in the offseason.”

I could be reading to far into this...but it's the offseason and we need SOMETHING to analyze besides the falling value of the U.S. dollar.

Guys I would like to check out (not in that way) this afternoon are: Doug Martin, George Iloka, JP Nisby, Billy Winn, Kellen Moore, Dominique Vinson, and possibly Ricky Cookman and Kyle Efaw. Show us somethin' boys!

I will be surreptitiously taking my digital camera into the scrimmage to bring you blogsters some images and video from tonight's festivities, so check me out this evening for some "exclusive" content.